The climate is what we expect; weather is what we get.
I can’t remember where I heard this, but as regular readers will know, good phrases tend to stick in my head until they pop out here on my blog.
There are many people who will tell you what is going to happen, some will quite happily charge you for the advice. I have no idea where many get their insight from and, as with all predictions, they are often wrong, or were so woolly in the first instance that they try to argue that black is white.
I forget, are we heading for a new ice age, or global warming?
I am not discounting the value of forecasts, but their usefulness lies in the accuracy of the assumptions they are based on. There is not much difference between an uncertain stream of income, and a high pressure zone wandering aimlessly across the Atlantic Ocean towards Europe.
To you give yourself the best possible chance of coming out ahead of the rest, regularly test the assumptions you base your forecast on.
It’s never the weather that is wrong; it’s what you are wearing.